Safaricom is Kenya’s most talked-about stock. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just opened your first CDS account, chances are someone has told you to “buy Safaricom.” But is that still the right move in 2026? In this deep dive on Safaricom shares 2026, we break down whether SCOM is still worth buying at current prices.
In this Safaricom shares 2026 analysis, we’ll break down Safaricom’s latest financials, growth drivers, risks, and valuation to help you decide whether to buy, hold, or sell SCOM shares right now.
Safaricom Shares 2026: Key Numbers at a Glance
Share price: ~KSh 30.20 | Market cap: ~KSh 1.21 trillion | P/E ratio: ~13.8x | Dividend yield: ~5.3% | 52-week performance: Up ~45%
Safaricom remains the largest company on the Nairobi Securities Exchange and the most actively traded stock, with millions of shares changing hands daily. It accounts for a significant portion of the NSE’s total market capitalisation.
The Bull Case: Why You Might Buy
Record-Breaking Profits
Safaricom’s half-year results for FY2026 were exceptional. Net profit surged 52% to KSh 42.8 billion, driven by strong growth in M-Pesa and mobile data. Total revenue crossed KSh 200 billion for the first time in a half-year period, reaching KSh 204.7 billion.
This isn’t just a one-off bounce. Safaricom has been consistently growing its earnings, and the full-year FY2026 profit is expected to exceed KSh 80 billion.
M-Pesa Keeps Growing
M-Pesa generated KSh 88.1 billion in revenue during the first half, up 14% year-on-year. It now accounts for 45% of Safaricom’s total service revenue. Consumer payments grew 19.4%, and the platform continues to expand into merchant payments, savings, lending, and insurance.
M-Pesa is no longer just a money transfer service — it’s becoming a full financial services ecosystem. This evolution means there’s still significant room for revenue growth even in Kenya’s mature mobile money market.
Ethiopia Is Finally Taking Off
After years of heavy investment and losses, Safaricom Ethiopia is showing real momentum. The Ethiopian operation now has over 12 million subscribers, and M-Pesa Ethiopia has reached 5.2 million active users — a 258% surge in the most recent quarter.
Revenue from Ethiopia grew 48% in Q3 FY2026, reaching KSh 10 billion. Most importantly, Safaricom expects Ethiopia to break even by FY2027 (year ending March 2027). Once Ethiopia turns profitable, it removes a major drag on group earnings and becomes a growth engine instead.
Attractive Valuation
At a P/E ratio of about 13.8x, Safaricom trades at a significant discount to its telecom peers globally (average ~25x). Analysts have a consensus target price of KSh 38.50, which implies roughly 27% upside from the current price. Five analysts currently rate the stock as a “Buy.”
Reliable Dividends
Safaricom pays dividends twice a year and has a strong track record of maintaining or increasing payouts. The current yield of about 5.3% provides a steady income stream while you wait for capital appreciation.
The Bear Case: Why You Might Sell or Wait
Regulatory Risk
M-Pesa’s dominance attracts regulatory attention. The Central Bank of Kenya and the Communications Authority could impose new rules on mobile money fees, interoperability, or market share limits. Any regulation that forces M-Pesa to lower charges or share its infrastructure could impact Safaricom’s most profitable business line.
Ethiopia Isn’t Guaranteed
While the Ethiopian numbers are improving, Safaricom has already invested over KSh 100 billion in the venture. Ethiopia’s forex shortages, political instability in some regions, and the competitive threat from Ethio Telecom (which has the home advantage and government backing) remain risks. Break-even by FY2027 is the target, but it’s not guaranteed.
Competition in Kenya
Airtel Kenya continues to gain market share, particularly in data services. Fintech startups are chipping away at M-Pesa’s dominance in specific niches like cross-border payments, lending, and merchant payments. While Safaricom’s moat remains wide, erosion at the margins is something to watch.
Price Has Already Run Up
Safaricom shares are up roughly 45% over the past year. Some investors may feel the easy gains have already been made. If you’re buying today, you’re paying more than someone who bought a year ago, and the margin of safety is smaller.
What the Numbers Tell Us
Let’s put Safaricom’s key metrics side by side:
| Metric | HY2025 | HY2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | KSh 189.4B | KSh 204.7B | +8.1% |
| Net Profit | KSh 28.1B | KSh 42.8B | +52.1% |
| M-Pesa Revenue | KSh 77.3B | KSh 88.1B | +14.0% |
| Ethiopia Revenue | KSh 3.1B | KSh 6.2B | +100% |
| Subscribers (Kenya) | 34.5M | 35.8M | +3.8% |
| Subscribers (Ethiopia) | 7.2M | 12.0M | +66.7% |
The profit growth of 52% stands out. This wasn’t driven by cost-cutting alone — it reflects genuine revenue growth plus the narrowing of Ethiopia losses. When a company is growing both its top line and bottom line at this pace, it usually deserves a premium valuation.
Our Verdict: Buy on Dips
Safaricom remains the best blue-chip stock on the NSE for most Kenyan investors. The combination of market dominance, M-Pesa’s expanding ecosystem, Ethiopia’s improving trajectory, and an undemanding valuation makes a compelling case.
However, after a 45% run-up, we’d suggest a “buy on dips” approach rather than chasing the price higher:
- If you don’t own Safaricom yet: Start building a position. Consider buying in tranches — invest a portion now and add more if the price pulls back to the KSh 27-28 range.
- If you already own Safaricom: Hold. The fundamentals support a higher price over the next 12-18 months. The analyst consensus target of KSh 38.50 suggests meaningful upside remains.
- If you’re sitting on big gains: Consider taking partial profits if Safaricom represents more than 30% of your portfolio. Diversification is important, even when you own a great stock.
How to Buy Safaricom Shares
You can purchase Safaricom shares through:
- Ziidi Trader — Available as a mini-app inside M-Pesa. Start from as little as KSh 100 for fractional shares.
- Licensed stockbrokers — Dyer & Blair, Faida Investment Bank, AIB-AXYS Africa, or any of the 20+ licensed brokers in Kenya.
- SIB (Standard Investment Bank) app — Mobile trading platform for NSE shares.
All you need is a CDS (Central Depository System) account and a valid ID. Most brokers can set this up within 24-48 hours.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Safaricom’s dividend per share in 2026?
Safaricom declared an interim dividend of KSh 0.72 per share for HY2026. The full-year dividend is typically higher. In FY2025, the total dividend was KSh 1.44 per share, and analysts expect a similar or higher payout for FY2026.
Is Safaricom overvalued at KSh 30?
At a P/E of 13.8x, Safaricom is actually cheaper than most telecom companies globally. The average P/E for comparable telecoms is about 25x. Even considering Kenya-specific risk, Safaricom appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued at current levels.
Will Safaricom Ethiopia affect dividends?
Ethiopia’s losses have been narrowing, so the drag on group profits is shrinking. Once Ethiopia breaks even (expected by FY2027), it should actually support higher dividends rather than reduce them.
Can I buy Safaricom shares with M-Pesa?
Yes. Through the Ziidi Trader mini-app inside M-Pesa, you can buy Safaricom (and other NSE) shares directly using your M-Pesa balance. The minimum investment is KSh 100.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Stock prices, financial data, and analyst targets are approximate and may change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research or consult a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions.
For official financial reports, visit Safaricom Investor Relations.
Related: Top 10 NSE Stocks for Beginners | How to Buy Shares on Ziidi Trader
Disclaimer: The content on Sarafu is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. All investments carry risk — the value of your investments can go down as well as up, and you may receive back less than you invest. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
